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2022 Vol. 21, No. 1
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2022, 21(1): 1-8.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021252
Abstract:
As a sustainably utilized product, wood forest products play an important symbolic role in China's green economic and trade cooperation with foreign countries. In this paper, the trade data from 2010 to 2019 were used to analyze the pattern and trend of China's wood forest products export, and the trade potential model was used to calculate and compare the export potential of China to traditional markets (European and American countries) and emerging markets (countries along the Belt and Road). The results show that: ①as traditional export destinations, the export potential of developed countries in Europe and America has been fully developed; ②the market with great potential is mainly in central and eastern European countries, and the market with pioneering potential is mainly in western Asian countries; ③some countries belong to "the market with potential to shape", such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Kenya, which on the supply side have rich forest resources and cheap labor, while on the demand side also have a huge domestic market, and will have impact on China's export of the same kind of wood forest products once their domestic wood processing production capacity forms scale.
As a sustainably utilized product, wood forest products play an important symbolic role in China's green economic and trade cooperation with foreign countries. In this paper, the trade data from 2010 to 2019 were used to analyze the pattern and trend of China's wood forest products export, and the trade potential model was used to calculate and compare the export potential of China to traditional markets (European and American countries) and emerging markets (countries along the Belt and Road). The results show that: ①as traditional export destinations, the export potential of developed countries in Europe and America has been fully developed; ②the market with great potential is mainly in central and eastern European countries, and the market with pioneering potential is mainly in western Asian countries; ③some countries belong to "the market with potential to shape", such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Kenya, which on the supply side have rich forest resources and cheap labor, while on the demand side also have a huge domestic market, and will have impact on China's export of the same kind of wood forest products once their domestic wood processing production capacity forms scale.
2022, 21(1): 9-18.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021285
Abstract:
Clarifying the development pattern, conditions and status of the paper products trade in the "Belt and Road" countries will play a very important role in further optimizing the paper product trade. Based on the paper trade data of the initial 65 member countries of the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses social network analysis methods to analyze the structure characteristics and evolutionary trends, and uses the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) to explore its driving factors. The research results show that the paper products trade network shows obvious spatial correlations, spillover effects and core-peripheral characteristics. The scale of trade has expanded significantly, and the stability of the network has gradually increased. China's position in the network is becoming more and more important, while the centeredness of Russia, Hungary, Slovakia and other countries is declining. The cultural distance, geographic distance, and forest resource endowment distance among the "Belt and Road" countries negatively affect the formation of the paper products trade network, while the FTA network positively affects the formation of trade ties.
Clarifying the development pattern, conditions and status of the paper products trade in the "Belt and Road" countries will play a very important role in further optimizing the paper product trade. Based on the paper trade data of the initial 65 member countries of the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses social network analysis methods to analyze the structure characteristics and evolutionary trends, and uses the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) to explore its driving factors. The research results show that the paper products trade network shows obvious spatial correlations, spillover effects and core-peripheral characteristics. The scale of trade has expanded significantly, and the stability of the network has gradually increased. China's position in the network is becoming more and more important, while the centeredness of Russia, Hungary, Slovakia and other countries is declining. The cultural distance, geographic distance, and forest resource endowment distance among the "Belt and Road" countries negatively affect the formation of the paper products trade network, while the FTA network positively affects the formation of trade ties.
2022, 21(1): 19-28.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021171
Abstract:
The long-term high dependence on foreign wood supply does not meet the requirement of the new dual-circulation pattern with domestic cycle being dominated. The key to reducing China's wood dependence on foreign trade is to increase domestic wood supply, thereby transforming international wood supply as the mainstay to domestic timber supply as the mainstay. The results show that China can be independent of imported wood log and sawn timber in wood supply quantity based on the increasing possibility of China's wood production. If the growth and decline of forest resources are balanced, China's wood supply dependence of foreign import can be greatly reduced. There is still great potential to increase the bamboo substitution of wood. So China already has the conditions to supply wood mainly depending on domestic forest resources. Wood production utilization is not inconsistent with forest resource protection, and the advanced experience of typical provinces should be learned to improve domestic wood supply capacity. Some effective measures should be taken to promote the development of the bamboo industry, and processing technology needs innovation to make up for the shortcomings in the quality of domestic wood supply.
The long-term high dependence on foreign wood supply does not meet the requirement of the new dual-circulation pattern with domestic cycle being dominated. The key to reducing China's wood dependence on foreign trade is to increase domestic wood supply, thereby transforming international wood supply as the mainstay to domestic timber supply as the mainstay. The results show that China can be independent of imported wood log and sawn timber in wood supply quantity based on the increasing possibility of China's wood production. If the growth and decline of forest resources are balanced, China's wood supply dependence of foreign import can be greatly reduced. There is still great potential to increase the bamboo substitution of wood. So China already has the conditions to supply wood mainly depending on domestic forest resources. Wood production utilization is not inconsistent with forest resource protection, and the advanced experience of typical provinces should be learned to improve domestic wood supply capacity. Some effective measures should be taken to promote the development of the bamboo industry, and processing technology needs innovation to make up for the shortcomings in the quality of domestic wood supply.
2022, 21(1): 29-36.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021219
Abstract:
Based on China's ban on the import of waste paper, two scenarios are set up in the Global Forest Products Model: the baseline scenario and the scenario of banning the import of waste paper. Both scenarios integrate the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the global economy and trade. This paper simulates and analyzes the impact of China's ban on importing waste paper from 2021 to 2030. The results show that, in the first place, the ban will lead to a shortage of domestic waste paper, increase the recycling of waste paper and improve the recovery rate of waste paper. Second, the fiber raw material structure of the paper will change, which is reflected in the increase of the proportion of wood pulp and other fiber pulp and the decrease of the proportion of waste pulp. Third, China's import of paper and paperboard will increase, and its output, consumption and export will decline. Fourth, the global waste paper trade market will be impacted and the volume of waste paper trade will decline. Based on the results, this paper puts forward some suggestions onbanning the import of waste paper in the paper industry.
Based on China's ban on the import of waste paper, two scenarios are set up in the Global Forest Products Model: the baseline scenario and the scenario of banning the import of waste paper. Both scenarios integrate the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the global economy and trade. This paper simulates and analyzes the impact of China's ban on importing waste paper from 2021 to 2030. The results show that, in the first place, the ban will lead to a shortage of domestic waste paper, increase the recycling of waste paper and improve the recovery rate of waste paper. Second, the fiber raw material structure of the paper will change, which is reflected in the increase of the proportion of wood pulp and other fiber pulp and the decrease of the proportion of waste pulp. Third, China's import of paper and paperboard will increase, and its output, consumption and export will decline. Fourth, the global waste paper trade market will be impacted and the volume of waste paper trade will decline. Based on the results, this paper puts forward some suggestions onbanning the import of waste paper in the paper industry.
Global Wooden Furniture Trade Pattern and China's Development Path Under Dual Circulation Background
2022, 21(1): 37-43.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021254
Abstract:
In recent years, Sino-US trade frictions and COVID-19 have made China's wood furniture industry face severe challenges. Based on the "dual circulation" background, it is necessary to study the global wooden furniture trade pattern and China's development way. Firstly, based on the social network theory, this paper constructs a global wood furniture trade social network model. Using the global wood furniture trade data from 2002 to 2019, calculate the centrality, network density, clustering coefficient and other indicators to display the global wood furniture trade network pattern and evolution trend. Secondly, it analyzes the evolution law and problems of China's wood furniture trade position. Finally, it studies the high-quality development path of China's wood furniture industry based on the strategic background of "dual circulation". The study found that more and more countries are participating in the global wood furniture trade, showing a trend of globalization, and the number of core countries in the global wood furniture trade is increasing; China has become a major country and the core country in the global wood furniture trade. The control and influence in the global wood furniture trade are constantly increasing. But at present, China's wood furniture trade surplus is relatively large, and it is easily affected by trade barriers. The market concentration is too high and the ability to resist risks is weak. The countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: China should expand imports and control surplus, seize the opportunity of the "Belt and Road" to develop domestic and foreign markets, deepen the supply side reform and extend the innovation chain, and strengthen the role of "visible hand".
In recent years, Sino-US trade frictions and COVID-19 have made China's wood furniture industry face severe challenges. Based on the "dual circulation" background, it is necessary to study the global wooden furniture trade pattern and China's development way. Firstly, based on the social network theory, this paper constructs a global wood furniture trade social network model. Using the global wood furniture trade data from 2002 to 2019, calculate the centrality, network density, clustering coefficient and other indicators to display the global wood furniture trade network pattern and evolution trend. Secondly, it analyzes the evolution law and problems of China's wood furniture trade position. Finally, it studies the high-quality development path of China's wood furniture industry based on the strategic background of "dual circulation". The study found that more and more countries are participating in the global wood furniture trade, showing a trend of globalization, and the number of core countries in the global wood furniture trade is increasing; China has become a major country and the core country in the global wood furniture trade. The control and influence in the global wood furniture trade are constantly increasing. But at present, China's wood furniture trade surplus is relatively large, and it is easily affected by trade barriers. The market concentration is too high and the ability to resist risks is weak. The countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: China should expand imports and control surplus, seize the opportunity of the "Belt and Road" to develop domestic and foreign markets, deepen the supply side reform and extend the innovation chain, and strengthen the role of "visible hand".
2022, 21(1): 44-49.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021278
Abstract:
To construct a theoretical framework of financial reform and forest product trade, we use the stochastic frontier model to conduct benchmark regression and robustness test with countries that have signed "The Belt and Road" agreements with China as samples, and empirically analyze the impact of China's financial reform on forest products imported from "The Belt and Road" countries from 2005 to 2019. The research shows that when other factors remain unchanged, China implements currency appreciation faster than its partners, lowers interest rates and improves financial and monetary freedom, which is conducive to promoting China's import of forest products from the "The Belt and Road" countries. Among them, interest rate has the biggest impact on forest product import. Therefore, China should persist in financial reform, reduce the cost of forest product enterprises by appropriately lowering exchange rate and interest rate, accelerate the speed of monetary and capital integration, and effectively improve the operating efficiency of the financial system. At the same time, cooperation among "The Belt and Road" countries should be strengthened, and green finance and green trade should develop together.
To construct a theoretical framework of financial reform and forest product trade, we use the stochastic frontier model to conduct benchmark regression and robustness test with countries that have signed "The Belt and Road" agreements with China as samples, and empirically analyze the impact of China's financial reform on forest products imported from "The Belt and Road" countries from 2005 to 2019. The research shows that when other factors remain unchanged, China implements currency appreciation faster than its partners, lowers interest rates and improves financial and monetary freedom, which is conducive to promoting China's import of forest products from the "The Belt and Road" countries. Among them, interest rate has the biggest impact on forest product import. Therefore, China should persist in financial reform, reduce the cost of forest product enterprises by appropriately lowering exchange rate and interest rate, accelerate the speed of monetary and capital integration, and effectively improve the operating efficiency of the financial system. At the same time, cooperation among "The Belt and Road" countries should be strengthened, and green finance and green trade should develop together.
2022, 21(1): 50-55.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021230
Abstract:
China is a major trading country of wood forest products in the world. The large fluctuation of wood forest products imports will bring adverse effects on domestic and inter national forest products markets and the development of domestic forest products industry. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of China's wood forest products import in order to strengthen the import management of wood forest products and promote the healthy development of China's wood forest products import trade. Based on the data of China's import trade of wood forest products from 1992 to 2020, this paper analyzes the fluctuation cycle and characteristics of wood forest products, constructs an ARDL model to analyze the factors influencing China's import trade fluctuation of woody forest products from the perspective of demand and supply, so as to provide basis for making corresponding policies and taking reasonable measures. The results show that the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import from 1992 to 2020 presents eight cycles, with each cycle length about three years. The expansion ability of China's wood forest products import trade is obviously weakened, but the overall growth level is improving, and the anti-recession ability and stability of fluctuation are enhanced. The fluctuation of demand side construction output value, supply side timber output, exchange rate and log import price have significant effects on the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import trade in the long and short term.
China is a major trading country of wood forest products in the world. The large fluctuation of wood forest products imports will bring adverse effects on domestic and inter national forest products markets and the development of domestic forest products industry. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of China's wood forest products import in order to strengthen the import management of wood forest products and promote the healthy development of China's wood forest products import trade. Based on the data of China's import trade of wood forest products from 1992 to 2020, this paper analyzes the fluctuation cycle and characteristics of wood forest products, constructs an ARDL model to analyze the factors influencing China's import trade fluctuation of woody forest products from the perspective of demand and supply, so as to provide basis for making corresponding policies and taking reasonable measures. The results show that the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import from 1992 to 2020 presents eight cycles, with each cycle length about three years. The expansion ability of China's wood forest products import trade is obviously weakened, but the overall growth level is improving, and the anti-recession ability and stability of fluctuation are enhanced. The fluctuation of demand side construction output value, supply side timber output, exchange rate and log import price have significant effects on the fluctuation of China's wood forest products import trade in the long and short term.
2022, 21(1): 56-64.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021290
Abstract:
High-quality construction of green Belt and Road Initiative is a vital way to comprehensive green transformation of social and economic development and to raise the level of green development of opening to the outside world. Firstly, based on the panel data of bilateral trade between China and the countries that jointly build Belt and Road Initiative from 2004 to 2018, this paper measures the extended margin, diversification index and product category of China's forestry environmental goods export to explore the export structure characteristics and changes of forestry environmental goods from various angles of view. On this basis, this paper introduces factors such as green new infrastructure and others to expand the bilateral trade gravity model, and makes an empirical test on the structural optimization effect of green new infrastructure on the forestry environmental goods export. The results indicate that from the perspective of product scope economy, the export scope of China's forestry environmental goods is expanding. The new green infrastructure of export destination countries can significantly improve the export scope of China's forestry environmental goods and optimize the export product structure from the view of green transformation. The new green infrastructure of export destination countries is able to positively affect extension margin and product category of export through reducing trade cost. Based on the empirical conclusion, some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of green Belt and Road Initiative, such as advancing environmental goods list, promoting green new infrastructure connectivity and giving full play to scope economic advantage of forestry environmental goods.
High-quality construction of green Belt and Road Initiative is a vital way to comprehensive green transformation of social and economic development and to raise the level of green development of opening to the outside world. Firstly, based on the panel data of bilateral trade between China and the countries that jointly build Belt and Road Initiative from 2004 to 2018, this paper measures the extended margin, diversification index and product category of China's forestry environmental goods export to explore the export structure characteristics and changes of forestry environmental goods from various angles of view. On this basis, this paper introduces factors such as green new infrastructure and others to expand the bilateral trade gravity model, and makes an empirical test on the structural optimization effect of green new infrastructure on the forestry environmental goods export. The results indicate that from the perspective of product scope economy, the export scope of China's forestry environmental goods is expanding. The new green infrastructure of export destination countries can significantly improve the export scope of China's forestry environmental goods and optimize the export product structure from the view of green transformation. The new green infrastructure of export destination countries is able to positively affect extension margin and product category of export through reducing trade cost. Based on the empirical conclusion, some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of green Belt and Road Initiative, such as advancing environmental goods list, promoting green new infrastructure connectivity and giving full play to scope economic advantage of forestry environmental goods.
2022, 21(1): 65-71.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021052
Abstract:
Under the background of the slowdown of global economic development and the increasingly obvious limitations of the WTO multilateral trading system during the Covid-19 pandemic period, the signing ofRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) has attracted extensive global attention, especially when the prevention and control of the pandemic has achieved remarkable effects in East Asian countries, the most popular regional economy in the Asia Pacific region. In this context, this paper analyzes the impact of reducing tariff barriers on the production, trade and welfare of global woody forest products. We conclude that the reduction of import tariff has a significant role in promoting the export of forest products of relevant countries, which is conducive to opening the door of forest products trade protection countries; however, the tariff revenue of Chinese government is reduced, and the welfare and social net welfare of China's forest products consumers are reduced. Finally, some suggestions on relevant policies are put forward according to the empirical results.
Under the background of the slowdown of global economic development and the increasingly obvious limitations of the WTO multilateral trading system during the Covid-19 pandemic period, the signing ofRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) has attracted extensive global attention, especially when the prevention and control of the pandemic has achieved remarkable effects in East Asian countries, the most popular regional economy in the Asia Pacific region. In this context, this paper analyzes the impact of reducing tariff barriers on the production, trade and welfare of global woody forest products. We conclude that the reduction of import tariff has a significant role in promoting the export of forest products of relevant countries, which is conducive to opening the door of forest products trade protection countries; however, the tariff revenue of Chinese government is reduced, and the welfare and social net welfare of China's forest products consumers are reduced. Finally, some suggestions on relevant policies are put forward according to the empirical results.
2022, 21(1): 72-76.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2020202
Abstract:
The outstanding economic, social and ecological benefits of non-timber forest products in poverty alleviation in impoverished mountainous areas and growth in farmers' income have been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars in recent years. On the basis of the definition of the concept of "non-timber forest products", through reviewing and sorting out the literature, this paper summarizes the existing research results from the following aspects: the behavioral characteristics of farmers in the production and management of non-timber forest products, the important role of non-timber forest products and the contribution of non-timber forest products to farmers' income growth and rural poverty alleviation. And then the existing improvement space and possible research trends are briefly reviewed and prospected in terms of perspective, content and methods of existing research, aimed at providing reference for further improving the relevant research on "non-timber forest products and rural poverty alleviation".
The outstanding economic, social and ecological benefits of non-timber forest products in poverty alleviation in impoverished mountainous areas and growth in farmers' income have been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars in recent years. On the basis of the definition of the concept of "non-timber forest products", through reviewing and sorting out the literature, this paper summarizes the existing research results from the following aspects: the behavioral characteristics of farmers in the production and management of non-timber forest products, the important role of non-timber forest products and the contribution of non-timber forest products to farmers' income growth and rural poverty alleviation. And then the existing improvement space and possible research trends are briefly reviewed and prospected in terms of perspective, content and methods of existing research, aimed at providing reference for further improving the relevant research on "non-timber forest products and rural poverty alleviation".
2022, 21(1): 77-85.
doi:10.13931/j.cnki.bjfuss.2021291
Abstract:
Affected by the global COVID-19 pandemic and unilateral trade protectionism, sustainable trade, which is closely related to economic development has become the focus of attention everywhere. Taking 32 representative countries and regions in the world economy as examples, according to their relevant panel data from 1995 to 2018, based on the non-radial three-stage SBM-DEA model, combined with the Malmquist index, this paper measures innovation efficiency, and analyzes its relationship with the impact of green technology progress on sustainable trade. The spatial Durbin model is adopted for regression analysis and effect decomposition. In terms of interaction, combined with the results of the spatial Dobin and error models, the Bootstrap mediation effect was comprehensively considered for analysis. The result shows that the progress of green technology not only promotes the sustainable trade development of a single country, but also has a positive spillover effect on surrounding areas or areas with similar economic development levels. The effect of green technological progress on sustainable trade is positively affected by innovation efficiency.
Affected by the global COVID-19 pandemic and unilateral trade protectionism, sustainable trade, which is closely related to economic development has become the focus of attention everywhere. Taking 32 representative countries and regions in the world economy as examples, according to their relevant panel data from 1995 to 2018, based on the non-radial three-stage SBM-DEA model, combined with the Malmquist index, this paper measures innovation efficiency, and analyzes its relationship with the impact of green technology progress on sustainable trade. The spatial Durbin model is adopted for regression analysis and effect decomposition. In terms of interaction, combined with the results of the spatial Dobin and error models, the Bootstrap mediation effect was comprehensively considered for analysis. The result shows that the progress of green technology not only promotes the sustainable trade development of a single country, but also has a positive spillover effect on surrounding areas or areas with similar economic development levels. The effect of green technological progress on sustainable trade is positively affected by innovation efficiency.
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